LONDON: Warc’s latest Consensus Ad Forecast indicates that global advertising expenditure will grow more slowly in 2013 than previously thought, at 3.4%, but adspend in the BRIC nations will increase between two and three times as fast. The Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies.
The revised figure of 3.4% is a downgrade of -0.6 percentage points (pp) from an earlier forecast in January 2013. Predictions for all countries, except Japan and Australia, have been cut since then. The biggest revisions came in the European nations of Spain (-6.7pp), Italy (-7.0pp) and France (-2.1pp).
All developed nations were predicted to see below average adspend growth, while Brazil (8.1%), Russia (12.1%), India (8.4%) and China (9.7%) are anticipated to be the strongest performers in 2013.
That performance will continue into 2014, when Brazil (10.7%), Russia (10.7%), India (11.4%) and China (11.4%) will again far outpace the rest of the world, which is forecast to grow 5.4%.
All media, bar newspapers (-4.6%) and magazines (-4.3%) were predicted to record year-on-year growth in 2013.
Internet and out of home were the only channels to see their forecasts upgraded, by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. These are also expected to be the fastest growing media during 2013, with internet’s 13.9% increase the outstanding feature. Out of home’s 3.1% advance is rather more modest.
“The global ad outlook for 2013 has worsened since the start of the year, significantly so in Western Europe,” said Suzy Young, Data and Journals Director, Warc.
“The UK is the only ad market in the region expected to record annual growth,” she added.
According to an industry analysis by Adobe Digital Index, mobile devices have changed the way consumers interact with businesses, making an understanding of the trends, strengths, and weaknesses of both tablets and smartphones important in serving mobile customers. Another perspective in the ongoing and growing interest in mobile marketing and advertising. In just three years, says the report, tablets have overtaken smartphones in the amount of traffic they drive.
Tablet versus smartphone growth
• Globally, websites are getting more traffic from tablets than smartphones
• Internet users view 70% more pages per visit when browsing on a tablet vs. a smartphone
• While tablet and smartphone consumers are both mobile users tablet users actually behave more like PC users in the way they browse and engage
Online advertising continues to grow but the share across media is shifting. Mobile advertising is drawing funds from search and display. To learn more about the online trends worldwide in the first quarter of this year, IDG Strategic Marketing Services Director Howard Sholkin spoke with IDC VP Karsten Weide….
Analysts Explore Emerging Trends at the Gartner Application Architecture, Development and Integration Summit in Sydney, 22-23 August and Las Vegas, 27-29 November 2012
The worldwide application development (AD) software market is expected to reach more than $9 billion in 2012, an increase of 1.8 percent over 2011, according to Gartner. In Australia, spending on application development software is expected to reach A$153.4 million in 2012, up 5 percent over 2011. Growth will be driven by evolving software delivery models, new development methodologies, emerging mobile application development and open source software.
With fears of another economic dip in the coming months, it looks like marketers will once again be put to the test in 2012. But it’s not all bad news. ZenithOptimedia predicts major media U.S. ad spending will grow 3.5% next year. Naturally, that modest increase is going to be managed to the penny, with analytics tools and other types of technology working side-by-side to stretch budgets farther in marketing offices everywhere. “We are getting closer to a world as envisioned in the movie ‘Minority Report’ than most consumers could even imagine,” says Scott Morgan, president of marketing agency Brunner. So what does the new year have in store for cruising toward that vision? Following are 10 trends that will shape marketing in 2012.
LONDON/WASHINGTON: The outlook for the US ad market is improving ahead of other key countries, Warc’s latest Consensus Ad Forecast shows.Within the 13 markets measured by the new research, US adspend received the largest single upgrade in forecast growth. The world’s largest ad market is now predicted to raise expenditure by 4.1% this year, a rise of +0.8pp from the January Forecast.
The Forecast, which is compiled based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies and other industry bodies, as well as Warc’s own data, indicated that global expenditure will be raised by 5.3% in 2012 and by 5.4% in 2013.
The ménage à trois in display advertising among Yahoo, Microsoft, and AOL has started on schedule. The three companies said today they are officially offering one another’s unsold inventory.
As a result, all three sales forces now have access to a trough of Interactive Advertising Bureau standard ad space bigger than any offered in one place before. But more important than reach and volume is quality, as the deal’s architects pray media buyers will view the new marketplace as the first stop for brand campaigns concerned above all with locking in “premium” media.
These three formats will make up upwards of 80% of all spending through 2016, eMarketer predicts. Search is and will remain by far the leading format, although its share of total online ad spending will slip slightly from 2012 to 2016 as online video ad spending nearly doubles its share from 7.9% in 2012 to 15% in 2016.
Tablets have become the consumer’s fourth screen, especially among those with smartphones. Techies with smartphones continue to use tablets at a higher rate. Those in the United States — at 17% — are among the highest, followed by Japan at 11%, and the United Kingdom at 10%, according to Google. The data appears to fall into line with AdWords tools allowing marketers to add WiFi ad targeting.
US online ad spending will post growth well above 20% again this year to reach nearly $40 billion, eMarketer estimates, as the internet continues to prove its worth to advertisers in a tough economic climate.