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PC Market Forecast to Decline for a Second Consecutive Year in 2013, According to IDC

IDC PMS4colorversion 1 PC Market Forecast to Decline for a Second Consecutive Year in 2013, According to IDC

IDC Press Release

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. – Despite intense industry efforts to overcome market inertia, 2012 nonetheless ended on a sour note with global PC shipment volume shrinking 3.7% on the year. With limited initial traction from Windows 8 in the holiday season, and continued pressure from tablets, IDC now expects 2013 PC shipments to decline by 1.3% in 2013, according to the International Data Corporation (IDCWorldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

Disappointing holiday sales, an underwhelming reception to Windows 8, and continuing economic malaise that further crimped IT budgets marked the face of the market during the second half of 2012, leading to a year-on-year decline of 8.3% in fourth quarter shipments, the most substantial decline recorded for a holiday quarter.

Furthermore, emerging market growth potential is declining and coming closer to that of mature regions. 2012 marked the first year that emerging markets have seen a volume decline, and while 2013 will return to growth, it is projected at less than 1% and with modest, single-digit growth through 2017. For mature regions, 2013 will mark the third consecutive year of volume declines. IDC continues to expect limited growth in 2014 and 2015 with contracting volume in later years.

For the full release click here 

HTML5: 10 Provocative Predictions For The Future


ReadWrite

For HTML5 developers and decision makers, the most important technologies right now are HTML, JavaScript, CSS, mobile platforms and devices and evolving HTML platforms (browsers and operating systems). But what does that mean in the real world? It means these 10 things in 2013:

1. Rise Of HTML5 Mobile Platforms

HTML5 has played an increasingly important role building cross-platform apps for mobile devices. So far that has primarily been done using native “wrappers,” such as Cordova, which allow HTML and JavaScript to power apps on other native platforms (such as iOS and Android). This technique is called “hybrid” app development.

This year, though, a wave of emerging platforms will support HTML5 apps as a first-class citizen – no wrapper required! The biggest players will be Chrome OS, which is about to get much more attention from Google; Firefox OS, already scheduled to start shipping on low-end ZTE and TCL devices in Europe; Tizen, a new HTML-focused platform backed by many industry heavyweights, including Intel and Samsung; Ubuntu Phone, which brings the most popular flavor of Linux to phones, again with a HTML-centered ap strategy; BlackBerry 10, which puts HTML and JavaScript at the center of its next-gen app strategy; and Windows 8, which introduced a new HTML and JavaScript development model for it’s “Windows 8 style” apps.   One (or more) of these platforms is bound to succeed in 2013. My money is on Chrome OS and Tizen. With the backing of Google, a revamped developer and consumer push, and the broadest platform strategy (spans mobile and desktop), Chrome OS is very well positioned.

Continue reading… 

IDC Trims Chip Forecasts

Daily Finance

Research firm IDC recently released new projections for chip growth in both 2012 and 2013 that came in lower than previous expectations. As recently as July, the firm expected industry growth to come in at 4.6% with total revenue of $315 million, but the recent report dropped the growth number to 1% with revenue at $304 million. IDC cites global economic weakness and weak PC demand, among other factors, as some of the reasons for the slowdown. While reduced from its original projection of 6.2%, IDC now estimates 2013 growth at 4.9%. As you prepare for 2013 and consider your allocation to semiconductors, the role of reduced growth expectations should be central.

As the industry stands, even with the lowered expectations, both Qualcomm andIntel remain top picks heading into 2013. On the other hand, NVIDIA and ARM Holdings , while solid, may need to be tempered under the new targets. When we consider the numbers, however, there is the potential for each of these options to perform.

A growing consensus
The IDC report comes on the tail of a recent release from Gartner that also lowered that firm’s expectations for 2012 and 2013. Gartner is actually predicting a 3% decrease in semiconductor revenue for 2012, down to $298 million, but is much closer to IDC for 2013 with a projection of 4.5% growth. Both firms cite softness in the memory market – specifically in DRAM – as a major source of weakness for the year. The IDC report also looked to weakness in China, the ongoing eurozone debt crisis, weak PC demand, and other factors as catalysts for its lowered expectations.

 

Principal analyst Peter Middleton of Gartner stated: “The looming fiscal cliff, ongoing European debt crisis, slower emerging market growth and regional tensions have all played a part in reduced growth projections for semiconductor revenue in both 2012 and 2013. Inventory levels were already high at the start of the second half of 2012, and as PC demand rolled off, supply simply overshot demand.” The takeaway from each of these reports is that the general weakness in the economy is likely to create a drag on growth, even in an industry that is experiencing dramatic advances.

By the numbers
While it is easy to see the reduced expectations for the industry as a negative — OK, it is a negative — it is still important to keep the numbers in perspective. Even at the lower projections, IDC expects the industry to add $15 billion in revenues for 2013. Against the revenues of each of the companies mentioned above, this is still a significant increase:

Company Revenue (TTM) Revenue Increase for 10% Growth
Qualcomm $19.1 billion $1.91 billion
Intel $53.8 billion $5.38 billion
ARM Holdings $885 million $88.5 million
NVIDIA $4.13 billion $413 million

Source: Yahoo! Finance. TTM = trailing 12 months.

While the numbers required for 10% growth for each of these companies are not insignificant, and there is no reason to believe that the growth would be evenly distributed, the takeaway is that each of these companies could grow at 10% and still fall comfortably within the IDC numbers.

To further put this into perspective, each of the above companies have year-over-year revenue growth above 10% except for Intel, which shrunk revenue by 5.5%. Qualcomm grew revenue by 18.3%, ARM grew revenue by 20.3%, and NVIDIA grew revenue by 12.9%. This means that 10% revenue growth would be a slowdown for the three that grew, but with the strength of these companies, it is not inconceivable that they could continue to post solid growth figures while stealing sales from competitors.

Chip leaders
Qualcomm is the “New Chip King,” and is not likely to slow down as it charges into 2013. Central to this position is the company’s solid lead in 4G LTE. A recent report by Strategy Analytics locates Qualcomm’s market share in application processors at 48.1%. The industry as a whole grew at 69% on year-over-year basis, making the figure even more impressive. Overall, Qualcomm is strongly positioned, and is a buy despite the reduced IDC expectations.

Intel, which is generally considered a deep value within the industry, benefits from its diversified exposure to multiple market segments: the PC, mobile, and server markets.DIGITIMES recently reported that Intel plans to roll out a completely redesigned smartphone platform at the Mobile World Congress at the end of February. Furthermore, the company is expected to maintain its strong position within the $10 billion server market and the $31 billion PC market (for reference, PC market revenue remains five times larger than that for mobile processors).

While ARM continues to benefit from what Mr. Middleton at Gartner refers to as theApple effect,” it is simply not as strongly positioned as Qualcomm. Even with that in mind, the company’s relatively small size means it can hit significant growth figures without dramatically swinging aggregate market numbers. NVIDIA continues to be a solid player of the tablet side of the market, but also lags Qualcomm in overall appeal.

Overall, while the report from IDC should not be overlooked, there is still plenty of upside in the industry. The real impact is that with slower growth, you will have to be somewhat selective as to which names to own rather than just buying at will. Qualcomm and Intel remain my top two picks.

When it comes to dominating markets, it doesn’t get much better than Intel’s position in the PC microprocessor arena. However, that market is maturing, and Intel finds itself in a precarious situation longer term if it doesn’t find new avenues for growth. In this premium research report on Intel, our analyst runs through all of the key topics investors should understand about the chip giant. Better yet, you’ll continue to receive updates for an entire year. Click here now to learn more.

Apps for News Junkies

IDG News Service

On this IDG App Review we’ll take a look at some noteworthy news apps including Flipboard, Pulse, Fluent News Reader and more…

Responsive Web design: Yes or no for b2b marketers?

BtoB

As the mobile Internet continues to grow exponentially, marketers are confronted with an important technical question: Should you use responsive Web design or multiple URLs to reflect your Internet presence? It depends, said Derek Edmond, managing partner of KoMarketing Associates. Responsive Web design is a Web development method that allows website displays to automatically scale up or down in size, depending on the dimensions of the screen being used by the reader. It was developed for mobile platforms, which have much smaller screens than standard desktop computers and don’t display standard, fixed, 960-pixel websites very well.

Read more…