FRAMINGHAM, Mass. November 26, 2013 – According to a recently published mobile phone forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to surpass 1.0 billion units in 2013, representing 39.3% growth over 2012. Despite a number of mature markets nearing smartphone saturation, the demand for low-cost computing in emerging markets continues to drive the smartphone market forward. By 2017, total smartphone shipments are expected to approach 1.7 billion units, resulting in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4% from 2013 to 2017.
A number of trends co-exist in the global smartphone market, but none have more of an affect on driving market growth than the steady decline in average selling prices (ASPs). Android has enabled a number of new manufacturers to enter the smartphone market supported by a variety of turnkey processing solutions. Many of these handset vendors have focused on low-cost devices as a way to build brand awareness. In 2013, IDC expects smartphone ASPs to be $337, down -12.8% from $387 in 2012. This trend will continue in the years to come and IDC expects smartphone ASPs to gradually drop to $265 by 2017.
“The game has changed quite drastically due to the decline in smartphone ASPs,” said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Just a few years back the industry was talking about the next billion people to connect, and it was assumed the majority of these people would do so by way of the feature phone. Given the trajectory of ASPs, smartphones are now a very realistic option to connect those billion users.”
The smartphone industry is full of jargon that is difficult for non-insiders to understand. Charles Arthur at The Guardian recently posted a comprehensive explanation of a few terms that are the most confusing to casual observers, including “market share,” “installed base,” and “shipments.”
It’s easy to get caught up in headlines that point to Android phones having a dominant 80% “market share” in the global smartphone market, and Arthur wants people to dig deeper into that number by understanding what it really means, rather than take it at face value.
His article is a great read but at BI Intelligence we thought it would be useful to summarize his main points, with our definitions in bold:
1. Market share numbers are usually only a snapshot of smartphones shipped by manufacturers in a given quarter. Quarterly market share updates are not very useful on their own.
An example is IDC’s announcement Nov. 12 that phones running the Android operating system account for an 81% share of the global smartphone market.
It’s wrong to extrapolate from these quarterly market share numbers and think that 81% of phones in people’s hands are Android phones. The number just means that 81% of phones shipped in the quarter were Android devices. As Arthur explains, it’s ultimately sales that impact the installed base of devices, but most research firms and press reports actually discuss shipments.
FRAMINGHAM, Mass. – The worldwide mobile phone market grew 6.0% year over year in the second quarter of 2013 (2Q13). According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors shipped a total of 432.1 million mobile phones in 2Q13 compared to 407.7 million units in the second quarter of 2012. The 2Q13 total was also slightly higher than the 428.8 million units shipped in the first quarter of 2013.
The growth in the mobile phone market was partly driven by vendors from outside the Top 5 who experienced torrid shipment growth that outpaced the overall market. Several vendors, including Alcatel and Huawei, had high double- and triple-digit growth rates in the second quarter for their Android-based offerings shipped to high-growth countries such as China and India. In 2Q13, these vendors from outside the Top 5 accounted for 44.8% of the overall shipment volume, up from 42.2% in the same quarter one year ago.
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., June 28, 2013 – The PC market continued to suffer slow shipment growth in top countries across regions in May, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Monthly PC Tracker. April shipment growth had improved slightly from March in Latin America and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), but May growth has come in slower than April for each of these markets except India and UK.
FRAMINGHAM, Mass.– According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to grow 32.7% year over year in 2013 reaching 958.8 million units, up from 722.5 million units last year. 2013 will mark the first year that smartphone shipments surpass those of feature phones, with smartphones expected to account for 52.2% of all mobile phone shipments worldwide. This trend will continue for years to come as demand for mobile data and handheld computing spreads across both developed and emerging markets. Emerging markets will account for 64.8% of all smartphones shipped during 2013, which is up from 43.1% in 2010.
In 2012 tablet/mobile PC shipments are expected to reach 347 million; notebook/PC shipments are expected to reach 208 million. The breakdown for 2016 is expected to be 416 million (tablet) and 393 million (PC) for a total of 809 million mobile units. So, laptops are exactly dying, but their hold on the market will decrease; in 2012 laptops are expected to make up about 60% of mobile PC shipments but by 2017 they’ll account for less than half.
FRAMINGHAM, Mass.– Worldwide PC shipments totaled 92.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2011 (4Q11), down 0.2% compared to the same quarter in 2010, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. As expected, shortages of hard disk drives (HDDs) added to challenges from slow economic conditions and competition from other consumer electronics, including media tablets, eReaders and mobile phones. The 4Q11 results reflected a year-on-year decline of 0.2% for the quarter and growth of 1.6% for the full year. This was in-line with IDC projections of a 0.6% decline for the fourth quarter and 1.5% growth for all of 2011.